2009年10月28日晚，卑诗大学政治学系副教授Yves Tinbergen博士受温哥华九条会之邀，来到日裔中心作了题为鸠山内阁及今后日本的对外政策的演讲。
日本民主党在今年8月底的大选中以绝对优势战胜执政60多年的自民党，这一胜利被认为是在日本政治研究中改朝换代的大事件。尽管鸠山内阁才上台两个月，但已经在日本的对内，对外政策之上表现出了一些有意思的变化。Yves教授以翔实的数据分析了这一变化发生的原因，以及对将来日本的对外政策提出了预测。
October 28th, Dr. Yves Tinbergen, associated professor of UBC political science department, gave a lecture on “The victory of DPJ and foreign policy of Hatoyama cabinet”.
温哥华九条会最关心的自然是民主党对宪法第九条的态度。民主党本身的背景复杂，其成员包含了前自民党派阀，社民党左派等等，涵盖了左中右三派。加之民主党挑战美国权威，试图在日美关系中为日本争得更大的发言权的态度，让选民在大选前对民主党对宪法九条的态度颇为担心。有舆论认为民主党如果想要让日本成为能和美国平等对话的“正常国家”，宪法九条就应该被废除。事实证明这样的担心是多余的。Yves教授的数据显示，超过75%的民主党员反对修改宪法第九条，远远高于自民党40%左右的比例。
The status of Article 9 is the most concern of our VSA9 members. DPJ has a complicated background. Its members include former right wing LDPist, or left wing Socialists. And voters believe DPJ is going to take a tougher position against the U.S. This leads to the thoughts that if Japan wants to become a “Normal nation” and gains more equal position with America, then the Article 9 shall be abolished. Therefore, there was a concern about the DPJ attitudes towards article 9. Dr. Yves’s data shows these concerns are not necessary. Over 75% DPJist against revising Article9.
Yves教授的数据同时指出，2007年上议院选举中，安倍首相为首的自民党团操纵宪法九条议题，结果遭到惨败。自民党应该从这一失败中获得教训。即便自民党在今后重新赢得上议院或下议院多数，他们也应当投鼠忌器，在修改宪法九条的问题上小心行事。
Dr. Yves also pointed out that LDP tried to manipulate Article 9 issue and terribly lost in the 2007 HOC election. LDP should learn a lesson from this defeat and even they win their majority back later, they should not try to bring up the Article 9 issue again.
这样的结果标志着至少在很长的一段时间内宪法九条是安全的。这也可以理解为是民意的胜利。日本民众用选票说明了他们希望保留宪法九条，为日本争取一个更平等的日美关系的政策和保持日本非军事化的政策并不矛盾。
Such a result means Article 9 will be in safe at least for a while. This is the victory of the people’s will, I believe. Japanese voters expressed their support to Article 9 by their votes. This also indicates that Japan thinks a more equal Japan-US relation is not contradict to the non-military policy of Japan.
从政治学理论的角度来讲，认为日本应当废除宪法九条以便成为“正常国家”的说法是建立在传统的现实主义国际关系理论之上的。这一理论认为国家之间的力量平衡只能建立在军事力量的威胁之上。基于此理论，某些日本政治家认为日本在日美关系中欠缺和美国平等谈判的砝码，因此日本需要实现国防自主，重建军事力量以平等对谈，出于此目的，限制军备的宪法九条就应该被废除。这一理论的问题在于现实主义国际关系理论已经被证实是20世纪中多场战争的根源，也是日本军国主义时代的指导思想。日本作为战争的发起者和最终的受害者，实在没有必要再去重复过去的老路。国际关系理论中，同样存在新自由主义，解构主义等更和平和人性的学派，他们正在对现实主义学派形成强大的挑战和冲击。
From Political theory point of view, the thought that Japan should abolish Article 9 and become a “normal state” is based on the traditional realism school of international relation. Realism school believes that IR is based on the military might of a state. Based on this theory, some Japanese politician think Japan lacks the leverage in the negotiation with other states, therefore, Japan should realize a military independence. Therefore, the Article 9 which limits the state sovereignty shall be abolished. The problem with this thinking is that the realism school of thinking has been proved as the sources of many violent conflicts in the 20th century, and it was the guiding thinking in the imperial Japan. Japan, as the aggressor and the final victim of the war, shall not repeat the old mistake. In the studies of IR, there are also Neo-liberalism, Constructivism schools which are more peaceful and humanistic.
我个人倾向于用解构主义来理解国际关系。传统的现实主义学派认为我们都生活在一个弱肉强食的世界中，所以我们需要强大的军事力量以求自保。但解构主义学派认为，国际关系的世界并不是天生就是弱肉强食的达尔文世界。这是因为我们都倾向于往最坏的方向去思考别人，是从一开始我们都用这样的不信任和恶意来理解彼此，结果这个世界就真的成为了弱肉强食的达尔文世界。反过来想，如果我们从一开始都能用善意来理解别人，那我们现在对世界的理解可能会不同。
I prefer to use Constructivism to understand international politics. The traditional realism school believe we are all living in a power-based Darwinian world, therefore, we need strong power to protect ourselves. Constructivism school believes that the International politics is not born as a power-based Darwinian world. It was because, since the beginning, we tended to think others in a negative way. We tended to distrust others and be aggressive to each other, therefore our world really becomes a power-based Darwinian world. In other words, we constructed the power-based world. On the contrary, if we all could think about others in a positive way, trust each other and cooperate, our world today might be different.
宪法九条对日本和对世界的意义就在于此。过去四百年间的国际政治确实证明了现实主义学派的论点是事实。现实主义学派在过去四百年间的胜利是伴随着欧洲工业文明和资本主义的发展和扩张，并最终被世界范围的国家接受，成为国际关系中占统治地位的指导思想。但是20世纪的历史同样证明了这样的现实主义最终会把国家引向冲突和战争一途。二战后很多国家都认识到了这样的指导思想最终会把我们引向毁灭，因此新自由主义和解构主义作为现实主义的替代得到了很大的发展。很多国家也开始试验一些措施限制国家的军事力量在国际关系中的作用，来作为重建国际间信任关系的努力。日本宪法第九条无疑是这些政治试验中最引人注目的一条。
This is why Article 9 is important to human beings. The history of the past 400 years demonstrated that realism school is the reality of international politics. In the past 400 years, along with the development of European industrial civilization and the expansion of capitalism, the realism school has been accepted by all countries over the world. It becomes the dominant theory of international politics. But the history of the 20th century also proved that realism understanding only can lead countries to conflicts and wars. After WWII, many countries already realized that this understanding can only leads us to a devastation, therefore many of them start some practices which can limit the military power of states and re-establish the trust-relationship between nations. Article 9 of Japan is definitely an eye-catching experiment among these road-finding practices.
因此，保持宪法九条的努力可以理解为新的国际关系理论对旧有的达尔文主义的理论的挑战。保持宪法九条的胜利标志着对过去四百年间人类政治思想哲学的反思，和在世界范围内开创一种完全不同的人际/国际关系的胜利。如果保持宪法九条的斗争失败了，那么我想我会真的悲观绝望，从而像Hans Morgenthau宣称的那样，认为人的本性就是如此无可救药的。
Therefore, the efforts of defending article 9 can be understood as the new generation of international political theory challenging the old Darwinian Realism. The victory of defending Article 9 is a symbol of how we re-think about the political philosophy of the past 400 years. It is also an experiment of making a new inter-personal and international relationship. If we failed to defend Article 9, I think I would be really disappointed and pessimistic--and I would really become a believer of Hans Morgenthau who claimed that human nature is really that hopeless.
这一理论同样适用于中国。一般认为中国将是接替美国的下一个超级强权。现实主义学派中对强权更替有着非常悲观的预测--国际强权更替必然导致世界范围内的战争和冲突。但在解构主义者来看则是未必。中国的未来也正在我们的建设之中。如果中国走过去欧洲殖民主义帝国主义的老路，那么现实主义者的预测倒是很可能的。但是中国完全有可能从历史中获得教训，走上一条与他人信任，和平共存的道路。这也要求中国以外的人们不要从一开始就简单用恶意和不信任去理解中国的崛起--因为这样会简单得导致中国同样以不信任和恶意回应，最终大家都会走上过去四百年间不信任和冲突的老路。
This theory also applies to China. Generally, China is regarded as the next hegemony which will replace America. Realism school has a very pessimistic Hegemony changing theory--the change of hegemony powers will definitely leads to world wars. But according to constructivists, it is not necessarily true. The future Chinese policies are still under our construction. If China repeated the old way of colonialism and imperialism, then the realists prediction might become true. But it is also possible that China can learn a lesson from the history and walk to a peaceful rising (the words Hu Jintao used in the ASEAN +3 summit) and peaceful co-existing way. This also requires that people out of China don’t initially interpret The China’s rising in a negative way--because this would only make China to distrust others and think others negatively in return, then we would repeat the old way of distrust and conflicts as we did in the last 400 years.
鸠山内阁提出的东亚共同体的思路，同样是重建东亚各国之间的信任的努力，应当得到大力支持。作为这一策略的一部分，宪法九条则必需要得到保留。很难想象如果日本删除宪法第九条，日本还能赢得中国或者韩国的信任。宪法九条可以说是东亚共同体的先决条件。
The East Asia Community proposal by PM Hatoyama is another efforts to win trust from other Asian countries. I give my full supports to this idea. As part of the strategy, the Article 9 should definitely be maintained in the Constitution. It is hard to believe that Japan could win the trust of China and Korea if Japan deleted Article 9. Article 9 is the necessary condition of the East Asia Community.
Arc Han is a University of British Columbia student majoring in International Relations, and a member of Vancouver Save Article 9.
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