CO2 is not causing the Global Warming 

 Many arguments against the anthropogenic cause of global warming (AGW) have been published, but the fundamental issue, i.e., the greenhouse effects of the so-called greenhouse gas, has not been critically examined, it seems. The narrative on the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide seems to have become an unquestionable truth: cultism. However, we need to explore the issue seriously, because the whole issue of climate change may be based on a wrong assumption. There are two aspects; one is the scientific aspect of the greenhouse effect; and the other is historical data that show the relationships between the CO2 content change in the atmosphere and the global temperature change. Dr. Thomas Allmendinger showed by experimental study that the temperature of the atmosphere is maintained by the thermal movements of the main components (N2 and O2 molecules), and has little to do with IR absorption by CO2 [1]. His idea and research result was explained by an author [2]. Here we re-examine the greenhouse effect issues. The Basic Mistake of The Greenhouse Effect in the Climate Narrative The original scientific idea of greenhouse effect was produced by Svante Arrhenius, a Nobel Prize winner. The idea of the current climate alarmists is based on the Arrhenius idea that IR (infrared) radiation emitted from the surface of the globe is absorbed by some components in the atmosphere by way of intramolecular movements, i.e., IR-active vibration. Such compounds would return about a half of the IR radiation energy absorbed to the ground. This is the greenhouse effect according to the official narrative. Let’s call this type GHE (Green House Effect)-1. Such molecules that affect the atmospheric temperature are termed as “Greenhouse gas”. The greenhouse gases do, indeed, absorb the IR intramolecularly, but absorb only minimal portions of the IR emitted by the global surface. Besides, the major greenhouse gas that absorbs the IR intramolecularly is water vapor which contributes about 95% of the greenhouse effect GHE-1. CO2’s effect is only a few % or so of the overall Arrhenius type greenhouse effect (GHE-1). The major components of the atmosphere N2 and O2 do not absorb IR in this manner. Hence the contribution of the major components is neglected for the function of maintaining the atmospheric temperature. Heat emitted from the surface, however, is transmitted to the molecules in the atmosphere to intensify their movements. The more intense movement of gas molecules is reflected in the higher temperature of the gas. That is, the air (N2 and O2) is indeed the major heat absorbing agent by their intermolecular (kinetic) movements [1]. This is the main effect working in the ”real-life greenhouse”, and let’s designate it as GHE-2. In the case of actual atmosphere, the heat absorbed by the air is transferred to higher level because no enclosure like the real life greenhouse exists. Eventually the heat coming from below (the earth surface) and the heat moving away toward higher level would become equal, i.e., steady state is realized. The established steady state is what we see today as the global (atmospheric) temperature. Thomas Allmendinger [1] showed experimentally that the steady state temperature is dependent on the pressure and the mass of the material in the atmosphere. An experiment showed that 1 atm pressure atmosphere of pure argon whose molar mass is 40.0 g/mol will attain about the same temperature as that of 1 atm CO2 whose molar mass is 44 g/mol, as shown in Fig. 1 [1]. Argon is a single-atom entity and would not absorb IR; hence not GHE-1. Hence, the temperature of atmosphere is simply dependent on the molecular movement (i.e., GHE-2), and little to do with IR absorption (GHE-1).

This fact can be seen from another perspective. The temperature of lower portion of the troposphere is maintained through kinetic movements of molecules in atmosphere, because it has been shown to be governed by the ideal gas law: PV=nRT, where P=pressure, V=volume, n=number of moles ( in terms of mole), T=temperature and R=gas constant [3]. The temperature T can then be expressed by T=P/(R x ( where  is the density of the atmosphere and M is the molar mass of the molecules in the atmosphere. The temperature of the current earth’s atmosphere was calculated as 288.14 K= 150C according to this formula [3]. So the current overall average temperature of lower atmosphere is 15oC, and this temperature is maintained by N2 and O2 through GHE-1, i.e., their kinetic movements. The minor components H2O, CO2, CH4 and others contribute negligibly little in terms of GHE-1. They may contribute in terms of GHE-2 as well, but again negligibly small amounts. Ian Plimer says: “Air itself is a good insulator” in his major work, indicating that “greenhouse effect (GHE-1) is a misnomer [4]. At high altitude where the atmospheric pressure becomes low, the GHE-1 becomes significant, as GHE-2 is reduced. One of the major claims for the CO2 GH effect (GHE-1) for the global warming is based on the fact that the temperature of the atmosphere of Venus is quite high 740 K, because it consists mostly of CO2. So it can be claimed that GHE-2 effect of CO2 maintains that high temperature. However, it was calculated to be 739.7 K based on the gas law PV=nRT [3]. This result implies that the Venus atmospheric temperature is maintained by the kinetic movement of the molecules (CO2) in its atmosphere (GHE-2), not IR-based GH effect (GHE-1). “Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect” described by N. Nicolov and K. Zelller based on a detailed study of atmospheric temperatures of some planets [5] seems to be what GHE-2 means. It can be summarized that in the atmosphere near ground the contribution to the global warming is maintained by the thermal kinetic movements of the major components N2 and O2 (GHE-2), and contribution by CO2 or other so-called greenhouse gases through either GHE-1 or GHE-2 is negligibly small, irrespective of natural or anthropogenic origin, because their concentrations in the atmosphere is negligibly small. Hence, the idea of the anthropogenic CO2 causing the global warming is basically mistaken, though GHE-1 may be contributing to temperature maintenance minimally in the lower part of troposphere. The most effective greenhouse gas based on IR absorption (GH-1), i.e., water contributes significantly to weather/temperature regulation through cloud formation as well. 

Temperature rise causes increase of CO₂; not the other way around

 

Most data of temperature and CO₂ change in the last 500 million years show that there was no correlation between them [6]. In the last 800 thousand years the global temperature changed cyclically in about 100 thousand years cycle: the so-called Millankovich cycle of glacial periods. This is mainly due to the changes in the distance and angle of light between the Sun and the Earth. 

   The studies of CO₂, methane and temperature change in the ice core in Antarctica produced a diagram as shown in Fig. 2 over that period [7].  CO₂ and methane look to have changed in the same manner as that of temperature. Hence, this set of data has been claimed to indicate that CO₂ and CH₄ cause temperature change; i.e., temperature goes up when CO₂ increases (i.e., GHE-2). However, if it is looked at carefully, the changes of CO₂ and methane follow the temperature change; not the other way around. That is, when temperature goes up, methane and CO₂ increase, and they go down as temperature goes down. This is a natural process; as temperature goes up, CO₂ in the ocean will leave the water and enter in the atmosphere. 

 

         

                       Fig. 2 Changes in temp, methane and CO₂, last 800,000 years [7]

    

More recent data also shows the same thing (Fig. 3) [8]. A detailed statical study of T vs CO₂ also concluded that T -> CO₂ (temperature change causes change in CO₂), and not the other way [9].

         

                             Fig. 3  Yearly change of CO2 and Global Temperature [8] 

   The last glacial period ended about 12 thousand years ago, and we are currently in the so-called interglacial warm period. The temperature went up more than 7^oC degrees during the first a few thousand years after the glacial period ended, and then was somewhat stabilized. Yet, the temperature has kept changing. The overall picture of global temperature change in the last 10,000 years (Fig. 4) indicates that the temperature changes (up and down) of about +1.0⁰C have occurred a number of times [10]. The most recent warm period was around 1000 AD (medieval warm period), and the latest cold period was around 15-19 century (known as little glacial period). And now we are in a temperature-rising period. In the last several centuries the global temperature change seems to correspond to the change in the activity of Sun [11]. By the way, this source [11] also suggests that the current solar activity cycle 25 seems to surpass the previous cycle 24. This could be related to the current temperature rise. All these facts imply that CO₂, natural or anthropogenic, is not the major cause of the current global warming or climate change. 

 

     

                            Fig. 4 Temperature change in the last 12,000 years [9] 

 

Mistake of “NetZero”

 

As pointed out often, “NetZero or Decarbonization” is detrimental for the entire living system on the Earth. Carbon is the basic component of all living materials: proteins, carbohydrates, DNA, vitamin C, etc, and those C-containing compounds are produced from carbon compounds such as carbohydrates produced by plants using CO₂ and water by photosynthesis with solar energy. Photosynthesis also produces oxygen we need to survive. Hence, decarbonization, if realized, decimates this wonderful living world. Fig. 5 shows how CO₂ and H₂O are vital components for living organisms and their system [12].

 

             

                        Fig. 5  All living organisms are dependent on CO₂ and H₂O [12]

 

Reference

 

[1] Thomas Allmendinger, The Real Cause of Global Warming and its Consequences on Climate Policy,  SciFed Journal of Global Warming, 2018, 2:1; Thomas Allmendinger, The Refutation of the Climate Greenhouse Theory and a Proposal for a Hopeful Alternative, Environ. Pollut. Climate Change, 2017, 1:2; https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317572928

[2] https://www.pollution.news/2022-07-28-greenhouse-gas-effect-does-not-exist.html

[3] Robert Ian Holmes, Earth Sciences, 2017; 6(6): 157-163; 2018; 7: 107-123

       https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20170606.18

[4] Ian Plimer, “Heaven and Earth: global warming the missing science”

        (Taylor Trading Publishing., 2009) p365-367

[5] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317570648

[6] Berner, R.A., Kothavala, Z. GEOCARB III: 2002. A revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Data Contribution Series #2002-051. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA; 2001. bhttp://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate forcing/trace gases/phanerozoic; Scotese, C. R., 2002. PALEOMAP Project, Arlington, Texas; 2002. http://www.scotese.comN

[7] Ed Brook, Nature, 435, 2008.05.15  https://www.nature.com/articles/453291a.pdf [8]https://www.env01.net/main_subjects/global_warming/contents/s003/globalwarming_s03.html

[9] https://www.aimspress.com/article/id/668fb539ba35de127fcb6dde

[10] Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S.J., Moller, J., 1969. One thousand centuries of climatic record from the Camp Century on the Greenland Sheet. Science, 166, 377-381;

[11] https://clintel.org/solar-activity-cycle-25-surpasses-cycle-24/

[12] Eiichiro Ochiai, “Chemicals for Life and Living” (Springer Verlag, 2011)